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COVID-19 pandemic deaths indicate death toll much higher than official count
A new Science Advances study estimates that early U.S. COVID-19 deaths were significantly undercounted. Researchers identified over 155,000 additional deaths outside hospitals between March 2020 and December 2021 that were likely missed, suggesting about 15.6% of deaths went unrecorded. This raises the estimated total for that period to more than 995,000, compared with the official figure of over 840,000.
The study points to uneven death reporting across regions and populations, with undercounting more likely in lower-income areas, rural regions, and communities with higher rates of preexisting conditions or larger Black populations. Researchers suggest the fragmented and underfunded U.S. death investigation system contributed to these gaps, especially under pandemic strain.
Using hospital death data—considered more reliable due to widespread testing—along with machine learning, the researchers estimated likely COVID-related deaths outside hospitals. They also note indirect pandemic effects, such as missed medical care and increased overdoses, contributed to excess deaths.
“Death reporting in the United States is a fragmented infrastructure that’s underresourced,” Mathew Kiang, an epidemiologist at Stanford University and a co-author of the study, told Scientific American. “During the pandemic, it was highly strained. We had more deaths than we’d ever had” in modern history.
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